Six 2022 races where the Supreme Court's abortion ruling could tip the outcome

Matthew Wilson

June 29, 06:00 AM June 29, 06:00 AM

The Supreme Court’s landmark decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and return decisions over abortion access to the states has upended the political map, diverting, if only temporarily, the electorate’s attention away from economic problems such as inflation, gas prices, and the cost of living.

But as Democrats stare down a precarious political environment in this November’s midterm elections, party leaders are attempting to reset the narrative by keeping the public’s attention fixed on abortion. And with Republicans opposed to abortion not backing down, many Democratic candidates locked in tight races are following their party’s lead.

It remains to be seen whether, as Democrats hope, the midterm elections will be transformed into a referendum on abortion and away from President Joe Biden's job performance. Abortion has already become a defining issue in the Florida Senate race between GOP Sen. Marco Rubio and Democratic Rep. Val Demings. Here are six other 2022 contests where the issue seems poised to play the biggest role.

Michigan governor

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has not shied away from making defending abortion access a centerpiece of her reelection campaign. Just hours after the Supreme Court released its ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, Whitmer filed a petition to the Michigan Supreme Court asking that the state’s pre-Roe abortion ban be struck down and that abortion be enshrined as a constitutional right under the state constitution.

Whitmer also has wanted abortion rights to be codified into Michigan state law, penning an op-ed in the New York Times in May that “Americans will suffer and may die” without abortion as a constitutional right.

Whitmer’s reelection prospects have improved amid a series of ballot access problems and legal troubles plaguing her potential Republican rivals, but don’t expect her to tamp down her heated abortion rhetoric anytime soon. Along with her Democratic allies in state government, Whitmer sees the return of Michigan’s 1930s-era abortion ban in the wake of Roe’s reversal as an opportunity to bolster her left-wing bona fides and reanimate voter enthusiasm, while forcing Republicans in the state legislature (along with her eventual opponent in the governor’s race) to defend an anti-abortion position that she believes a majority of Michigan voters find extreme.

SUPREME COURT ABORTION DECISION MOVES SPOTLIGHT TO STATE LEGISLATIVE RACES

Pennsylvania governor

The Democrats’ nominee to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is state Attorney General Josh Shapiro, whose perch as Pennsylvania’s top law enforcement official has given him a unique opportunity to foster a pro-abortion rights stance while drawing a stark contrast with his Republican rival, pro-Trump state Sen. Doug Mastriano.

Immediately after the Dobbs ruling, Shapiro pledged to use his powers as attorney general to “fight to protect” women traveling to Pennsylvania in order to procure an abortion from facing legal consequences in their home states. He has also pledged to be a bulwark in defense of abortion access if he’s elected governor, pointing out that if Mastriano, who supports restricting abortion from the moment of conception, wins the race, he is almost certain to work with the Republican-dominated state legislature to enact laws restricting abortion.

Wisconsin governor

There’s little doubt among observers that incumbent Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is one of the most endangered governors in the country. Unlike gubernatorial races in Michigan and Pennsylvania, his Republican rivals carry far less political baggage, and Evers’s 2018 victory over then-Gov. Scott Walker was one of the closest races of the election cycle. So, as Evers gears up for a tough fight in November, he’s looking to make the Republicans’ position on abortion a top issue in voters’ minds.

He recently promised to grant clemency to Wisconsin doctors who find themselves facing criminal charges for violating Wisconsin’s historical abortion ban, which was enacted in 1849 but never repealed, and thus could now go back into effect as decisions over abortion access are returned to the states. And he has called a special session of the Wisconsin Legislature, tasking lawmakers with rescinding the “criminal” 1849 law — a purely symbolic gesture, as there is little chance that large Republican majorities in the legislature will act on his demand.

But in putting state Republicans on the record as opposed to relaxing strict restrictions on abortion, Evers is following the lead of national Democrats and seeking to reset a high-profile race in a state that has until now looked relatively promising for Republicans.

Georgia Senate

For Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who before entering politics spent most of his adult life as a Baptist minister, being a “pro-choice pastor” is part of his political brand. However, his staunch support of abortion rights has drawn steep criticism in the historically conservative state he represents, and his Republican opponent has become something of a hero among social conservatives despite multiple personal troubles.

Prior to abortion taking center stage, Warnock had been pummeled by a steady stream of attacks over his stances on topics ranging from the economy and inflation to illegal immigration. Now, Warnock and rival Herschel Walker are going all out to make the Senate race something of a showdown on abortion.

Walker has backed a “no exception” ban on abortion, while Warnock is partnering with Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Stacey Abrams to emphasize his support for abolishing the Senate’s filibuster in order to codify Roe into federal law. And with Democrats eager to expand their narrowest of Senate majorities to overcome opposition to doing away with the filibuster from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), this race will be absolutely crucial in determining the future of federal abortion legislation during the remainder of President Joe Biden’s first term.

Pennsylvania Senate

One of the filibuster’s most prominent critics among Democratic candidates this cycle has been Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is his party’s nominee to face Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz in the race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey. From voting rights legislation to Biden’s signature Build Back Better Act, Fetterman has time and time again promised that if elected, he would be a reliable vote to abolish the Senate’s 60-vote threshold required to pass most legislation.

And the Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs has only added more fuel to his campaign. Fetterman has reiterated his vow to protect the “sacred” right to abortion by doing away with the filibuster in order to codify Roe, as well as to pass the Women’s Health Protection Act, which, among other provisions, would prevent states from restricting abortion prior to fetal viability and would require states to demonstrate a “compelling state interest” in order to regulate abortion at any stage after that, up until birth.

Fetterman has also tried to use abortion as a cudgel against Oz, claiming that his Republican rival supports banning abortion even in cases of rape or incest. This is despite the fact that although he describes himself as “pro-life,” details of the celebrity doctor’s stance on abortion restrictions remain somewhat unclear, and Oz has previously spoken in favor of allowing abortion in cases of rape and incest. Oz’s statement on the overturning of Roe was also more reserved than the overtly celebratory reactions of many Republicans.

With Oz struggling to define himself on the issue and Fetterman eager to hone in on abortion access as a means to promote his broader agenda, abortion is sure to continue to have an impact in this must-win race for both parties.

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Arizona Senate

Unlike some Republicans, who in the aftermath of the Dobbs ruling have preferred to keep their focus on economic issues such as inflation, Donald Trump-endorsed GOP candidate Blake Masters has wasted no time in hammering incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly over his support for abortion rights. Masters, whose Trump endorsement has given him the edge in the battle for the GOP’s nod to take on Kelly in November, called the overturning of Roe a “huge victory for children."

Masters has also slammed Kelly for voting to “legalize abortion up until the moment of birth,” referring to the senator’s support for the Women’s Health Protection Act, and has even tied Kelly’s support for vaccine mandates to his stance on abortion in an apparent attempt to highlight his alleged hypocrisy on bodily autonomy.

Kelly, meanwhile, hasn’t tried to avoid the issue. After the Dobbs ruling was released, the senator issued a statement calling the ruling a “giant step backward.” He also affirmed his support for codifying abortion into federal law, while at the same time criticizing his own state for both a recently enacted 15-week abortion ban and a pre-Roe law that, similar to Michigan and Wisconsin, punishes abortion doctors with prison time for performing the procedure. Mark Brnovich, the state attorney general and Masters’s rival for the GOP nomination to challenge Kelly, has supported the 15-week ban and has promised to enforce it when it goes into effect.

In this high-profile Senate race, both sides are digging in on abortion and show no signs of slowing down. It remains to be seen how big of a role abortion will play in the general election, but if recent events are any indication of what is to come, both Kelly and his eventual Republican opponent will be eager to use the issue to try to portray one other as unelectable and extreme.